ISIS is Pressured, Indonesia Must be Vigilant
The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in Middle East is predicted to be weak and destroyed soon. This militant radical group that has been committing many heinous attacks is now getting cornered and losing its territory. Their destiny is just in a matter of time.
The areas previously controlled by ISIS like Fallujah is now retaken by Iraqi Government. ISIS’ base in Libya located in City of Sirte has also been taken back by Libya. A barrage of attacks have been launched to ISIS in various areas. In Syria, ISIS was attacked badly by the alliance of Kurdi and Arab. The US also put strong pressure towards ISIS by launching simultaneous attacks in some ISIS defense bases. These pressures coming from many parties have made ISIS powerless.
Psychologically, ISIS has shown its weakening power and influence. ISIS’ increasingly ruthless and brutal actions like punishing people by dropping them from the roofs of buildings, soaking them in hot tar liquids, are actually done to release the pressure and for terrorizing the community. ISIS’ publications on internet media are also seemingly not as extensive as two years ago, it even tends to publish repetitions just to show its existence to the World.
The attractiveness of ISIS to its sympathizers is also decreasing. Its cruelty and pressure to many parties make the world community think twice to be sympathizers of ISIS. In fact, it can be said that ISIS is no longer interesting as the fields of jihad. Data from kompas.com (7/11/2016) stated that in May 2016 ISIS has lost about 45 percent of its territory in Iraq and between 16 to 20 percent of its territory in Syria.
The weakening of ISIS in the Middle East due to the resistance and attacks from many quarters does not necessarily make the world free from the threat of ISIS. ISIS has militant Force that although small in number, are capable of creating a significant impact. The actions are vile and fearsome. And those actions of ISIS will continue to increase along with the magnitude of the attack on ISIS.
Pressure from various sides against ISIS allows its sympathizers from various countries to return to their home countries. While the other remaining members of ISIS is expected to change the strategy in the war against its opposition (opposing countries). Possible strategies to be carried out by ISIS at the moment are the underground attacks, terrorist acts like suicide bombings and other sporadic acts that are expected to be more effective to demonstrate its existence.
ISIS’ defeats will have some impacts globally. ISIS’ sympathizers in many places might want to show their solidarity and will defend the dignity of ISIS by committing lone wolf terror acts. Individual action is easy to do because the movement is actually difficult to recognize and is usually done by people who are unexpected. Skills and supporting materials for these individual attacks can be obtained easily, especially with the support of the internet.
The Impacts to Indonesia
The returns of Indonesian ISIS’ sympathizers must be anticipated. In December 2015, the police declared that around 240 Indonesian ISIS’ sympathizers returned from Syria (tempo.co 23/12/2015). It complements previous data released by the National Police confirming that 384 citizens joining ISIS in Syria and 46 of them had returned to their homeland (liputan6.com 18/11/2015).
With the vigorous eradication of terrorism in Indonesia carried out by the government, the ISIS’ sympathizers returning from Syria will be difficult to get a place. They might form small groups or go separate ways as individuals and spread all over Indonesia. Such individual movement will be difficult to detect. With these strong measures of government to fight terrorism, the ISIS’ sympathizers will be more careful in making any move.
Some attacks to demonstrate existence triggered by ideology and revenge motives could possibly happen. Their experience in Syria would be useful to carry out acts of terror in Indonesia. The targets of the attacks are likely symbols of western countries like America. While the group of right-wing radicals who sympathized with ISIS in Indonesia have different terror targets. They tend to make the police as the main target. It will be very dangerous if both collaborate to create attacks in Indonesia.
Anticipation
Both possible attacks from the Syrian returnees and the existing right wing radical groups in Indonesia must be anticipated. Initial prevention that can be done is by tightening the immigration clearance for the ISIS’ sympathizers coming back from Syria. Some entrance points from Malaysia and the Philippines must be monitored tightly.
The police statement confirming that 384 citizens have joined ISIS can be used to check the flow of information and the flow of funds. If they have already entered into Indonesia, then tighter monitoring to close family members and friends needs to be done. The tradition as the eastern people to meet with the family after travel far will make it easier to locate the sympathizers who returned from Syria.
The government needs to be firm against ISIS’ sympathizers who returned from Syria. By law, if they join the ISIS, which is the common enemy of many countries, it is a violation of law. ISIS is an organization banned by the government of Indonesia on October 11, 2014. This implies that citizens who become ISIS’ sympathizers are lawbreakers. Terrorism is an extraordinary crime that must be dealt with seriously. Supporters of the banned organization that committing acts of terror certainly cannot be left free.
Conclusion
ISIS is getting pressured in Middle East. Its troops are diffused and its sympathizers are returning back to their respective countries. However, some remaining militant troops of ISIS will not easily give up. This situation even makes them more fierce and cruel.
Meanwhile, the returning of Indonesian ISIS’ sympathizers must be handled seriously. ISIS has been declared as a forbidden organization. This should be the reference for the government to execute its sympathizers.
Government firmness in dealing with the returnees is the key to suppress acts of terrorism in Indonesia in the future. ISIS is increasingly pressured in Syria, and the Indonesian government must be more vigilant.
*) Stanislaus Riyanta, an intelligence and terrorism analyst, alumni of Strategic Intelligence Graduate Program, University of Indonesia.
