Second Round of Jakarta Election Will Bring More Heat
If there’s no extraordinary event and without preceding the official election results from the KPU Jakarta, then based on the results of the quick count survey agencies, Jakarta 2017 elections will be held two rounds. The second round will be followed by a pair of candidates Basuki Purnama Tjahaja-Djarot Saiful Hidayat and the candidate pairs Anies Baswedan-Sandiaga Uno.
A quick count of the LSI, Polmark, and SMRC almost has the same pair number 1 is not more than 20% while the pair number 2 is more than 40% and the pair number 3 nearing 40%. Other pollsters who did a quick count as compass is also on the same results.
Election Results DKI is interesting, considering that will produce the second round of elections could be called Pre-Presidential Election. DKI second round of the elections will be heating or show of force as well as the PDI-P and Gerindra coalition and the coalition headed the Presidential Election in 2019.
PDI-P which carries Ahok-Djarot and Gerindra that carries Anies-Sandiaga will be issued a maximum strength with various way to success in the city. PDI-P and its coalition victory would be a powerful capital for Joko Widodo, Gerindra and coalition victory would be a powerful capital for Prabowo. Many indications that Joko Widodo and Prabowo will advance in the Presidential Election 2019. This makes the election DKI be very important and have an impact nationally.
DKI second round of the elections on schedule recapitulation of voters between March 5 to April 19, 2017, the second campaign April 6 to 19, 2017, the quiet period 16 to 18 April 2017 19 April 2017 election, recapitulation April 20 to May 1, 2017, and if no disputes submitted to the Court, the determination of the winner at 5 or May 6, 2017.
The situation in a series of activities DKI second round of elections expected to be hotter. The issue of defamation of religion will continue to be utilized to create a community resistance to Ahok. Polarization both camps will be strengthened, and this would be a vulnerability which could be the entrance to a horizontal conflict.
The Democratic Party and its coalition bearers Agus Harimurti and Sylvi, corresponding quick count stalled in the first round, base voice would be a bone of contention for the expectant couple number 2 and 3 in the second round of elections Jakarta. Democrats are in coalition at the national level to put themselves as the party of neutral, allegedly on the elections, DKI second round will take the same attitude that is still neutral and submit to the respective cadres, supporters and coalition parties to choose according to his own choice.
Gerindra and MCC as a bearer party coalition Anies-Sandiaga are expected to take advantage of the situation blasphemy case that is being experienced by Ahok to seize the party and the base period PAN, PKB and PPP. The issue of defamation of religion would be played to the maximum to gain support from the community and the parties that supported and voted number 1.
Islam bearer party base pair candidate 1 will certainly benefit the candidate pair 3 to approach compared two candidate pairs that were hit by the problem of blasphemy. Candidate pair No. 3 would be easier to achieve additional sounds that had previously supported the pair 1 by exploiting religious issues, and charged with blasphemy.
PAN, PKB and PPP known to form a coalition with the Democratic Party brought the pair of candidates 1, while in the 2014 presidential election noted that the PAN, PKB and PPP is a coalition that brings together PDIP Joko Widodo as President. PDI-P as the main party that carries the No. 2 candidate pair could certainly take advantage of this situation to embrace PAN, PKB and PPP united in DKI second round of elections.
Stronghold pair No. 2 still had great expectations for adding the bearer party in the coalition. The composition of the coalition parties at the national level of government support should be put to good use by the PDI-P to embrace the PAN, PKB and PPP. The political power of the PDI-P is currently a pro-government party will have a distinct advantage in bargaining to gain support.
Potential Conflict and Prevention Action
Potential conflicts on the second round of Jakarta election remains high. Polarization both camps suspected to be grazed Tribe, Custom, Race Religion (SARA) issues that could be sensitive to trigger a conflict. Each camp will certainly strive to increase support, various issues will be played, will be done in various ways. If excessive, then this will trigger horizontal conflicts are detrimental to society and the country of Indonesia.
To prevent conflicts arising polarized political dynamic and seasoned with racial issues, the government need to work hard with the community to take precautions. Society needs to be made aware that the election is a democratic party that is full of excitement, not a war to topple the opposite camp by all means. The election to choose the region, the battle between the camps should be done by promoting a best programs that will be the mainstay of each pair of candidates if elected, instead of using racial issues that are prone to trigger conflict.
Party elite must show example to the community. The political process does not have to be lived with tension, but can be lived with joy and chivalry. If the party elite is able to provide an example it is expected that the public will be more serene and harmonious in following this democratic party.
Police officers who assisted the military and intelligence devices need to work harder and extend the stand-by time after this first round. Early detection and early prevention of the threat must be done quickly and accurately.
Steps taken by the police to forcefully against legal problems in the first round of the Jakarta electionneeds to be done so as not to swell and become a deterrent effect. With decisive action from law enforcement, the parties will conduct disorder on Jakarta election second round will think twice. If no decisive action from the police against bullies elections then it will be repeated.
Jakarta elections in the first round went well beyond the small incidents that certainly should not diminish appreciation to the people and security forces who have been keeping the city’s elections went well. The government through the military and police have been working professionally and able to create a good situation and conducive. KPU and Bawaslu also organize and supervise the implementation of the election DKI well.
Agus-Sylvi which was ranked last on Wednesday (15/2/2007) night, after learning the results of the quick count, had contacted a couple Ahok-Djarot and Anies-Sandiaga over the phone to congratulate him. This is proof of political maturity that is expected by the people, ready to win and ready to lose.
Jakarta Election is one of the mechanisms of democracy to elect a leader Jakarta the next five years. There is still a process that should be a second round in the street, although expected to be hot, but it is expected the results obtained actually describe selection of Jakarta residents.
Hopefullysecond round of Jakarta elections run smoothly and elegantly, without weakening the nation’s diversity and unity that has long existed. The elections should only result in two things, winning becomes leader of regional heads, who have not won statesman. Whatever the final result of the elections later may describe adigium Vox populi, vox dei, the voice of the people is the voice of God.
*) Stanislaus Riyanta, intelligence analysts, alumni of Faculty of Sanata Dharma University in Yogyakarta and Graduate Studies in Strategic Intelligence, University of Indonesia.