The Year of 2018 is The Political Year
The Government that run by the Cabinet Coalition is politically working for the preparation to attract the heart of the people to face the General Election and the Presidential Election in the year of 2019. It means the people has to feel satisfy with the result of the Cabinet’s working after ruling the country for five years.
Accordingly specifically President Jokowi said, the year of 2018 is the political year, that likely means all the Ministries have to work hard since now so in 2018 the people will feel politically satisfy to the presence of the President Jokowi’s government. As the further political event, the ruling Political Parties led by President Jokowi are expected to be re-elected as the further ruling Cabinet Coalition led by President Jokowi as the eight President of The Republic of Indonesia for five more years (2019-2024)
Also Minister of Home Affairs Tjahyo Kumolo, who is the former Secretary General of PDI-P openly said that all the Ministers members of Government Coalition though to be coming from different political parties they should work to finish the mission of their respective Ministry successfully as the supporters of the government.
The expectation of President Jokowi and Minister of Home Affairs Tjahyo Kumolo is normal expectation however it is also the realistic consideration that though President Jokowi is very popular and as if people will elect him as the President of the period of 2019-2024, but President Jokowi likely also objectively recognizes the achievement of his Cabinet is still far bellow his campaign promises as stated in the Nawacita as the Official Program of his Cabinet.
Most of observers were of the opinion President Jokowi in his yearly speech as he presented in front of the House of Representatives plenum meeting on August 16, 2017 was not completely describing the general report on the national development program in the respective annual achievement describing what have been achieved and what are still needed the strong struggle to achieve all of the national development target. President Jokowi definitely had presented the various achievement but without clearly describing the position of the achievement in the short, medium and long range national dvelopment program. So it is clear President did not describe the achievement and what struggle we should face to completely finish the national development.
Political analyst are of belief in connection with the political year of 2018 and finally in 2019 President Jokowi needs not only his wide popularity but also mainly his high electability to win the Presidential Election of 2019. Now the popularity of President Jokowi is definitely wider than his possible rivals in the Presidential Election of 2019.
However he still needs the strong electability to win the battle and the essential factor of his electability are the complete achievement of the Government National Development Program as described in Nawacita.
Accordingly the reminding of President Jokowi to all his Ministers to work professionally to achieve the goals needed by all the Citizens is very serious instruction for the Cabinet Coalition members. The people’s satisfaction will become the main factor to built the strong electability of President Jokowi and all the Cabinet Coalition members Political Parties.
President Jokowi definitely realizes the complete achievement of the medium term (five years) of the national development program is the essential element to keep his popularity permanently wide and to build the electability for the General Election and mainly in the Presidential Election in 2019 become higher.
Minister of Home Affairs is also definitely aware of this situation accordingly he demands all the members of the Cabinet Coalition faithfully perform his mission to finish successfully a part of the Government mission allocated to all the members of the Cabinet Coalition.
Skillfully Minister of Home Affairs Tjahyo Kumolo touched Vice President JK to actively become the leader of President Jokowi success team in the coming Presidential Election. Definitely that kind of political activity is unlikely possible because Vice President JK is also potential to become the Presidential Candidate in the coming Presidential Election. However Minister Tjahyo Kumolo clarified it as his personal idea but he is definitely expecting Vice President JK to actively watch, control and supervise all the Cabinet members to work hard and seriously.
The year of 2018 and 2019 have been likely too close for the Cabinet reshuffle. Accordingly it seems likely President Jokowi will not conduct the Tird Cabinet Reshuffle to finish this Presidential term except any one of the Ministers to resign for joining the Regional Election.
Concerning the effort to strengthen of his Electability, President Jokowi definitely should evaluate the weakness or the vulnerable factors existing in his implementation of his Government National Program, namely Nawacita as he promised in his Presidential Election campaign in 2014.
According to Muchtar Effendi Harahap, one Political Observer of the Network for South East Asia Studies (NSEAS) there are four factors affecting the decrease of the electability of President Jokowi to day namely:
First, the failure of President Jokowi to fulfill his campaign promises to perform the People’s Welfare. In relation to the above reason, the failure of President Jokowi to manage his government in relation with the National Medium Development Planning (five years), apparently to have been affecting the more difficult situation of the economic life of the people, this is definitely very essential.
Second, the publish of the Political Government Regulation to suppress and to dissolve the Moslem mass organization and to criminalize the Moslem activist and Ulema.” (who are considered as radical and are against the Pancasila National Philosophy). The publish of the Government Regulation No 2 of 2017 to replace Law No 17 of 2003 on Mass Organization, which is now evaluated by the Constitution Court has been felt by the Moslem in general as the effort to weaken the role and the political influence of the Moslem society. The Moslem society is considered as the majority of the Citizens.
The third factor is the growing resistance and negative attitude especially among Moslem group, and the middle class society in the City in connection with the existing contradictory situation to the campaign promises of President Jokowi.
The fourth factor is apparently caused by the failure of the regional and local supporting political party’s infrastructure (members of the Cabinet Coalition) to attract their followers in their respective constituent to uphold President Jokowi’s image. Those four analysis should not be considered as hoax but a feedback that are good for further re-evaluation and correction of working.
Aside of that political analysis the various rough observation are also indicating the sporadic indication of the lack of economic program dealing with the effort to absorb the job seekers and reducing the jobless as the significant part to perform the people’s welfare.
The Good expectations to Jokowi
Qualitatively the evaluation is describing the Political and Economic Situation within almost the last three years are not creating the good expectations :President Jokowi apparently did not established his Cabinet based on Professionalism but more based on the take and give principles among the Political Parties suporting his government. His effort to create the strong Parliamentary spport to have pushed him to establish his Cabinet based on more Political Party interest.
The credible support of the members of the Cabinet Coalition is doubted, affected by the internal problem of the respective political party such as the internal dispute in the Golkar Party caused by the problem of Setyo Novanto; PKB which apparently does not support Chofifah in the Regional Election in East Jawa; PPP wich is still in the leadership conflict; PAN which supports the Cabinet but does not support Pres Jokowi in 2019 Presidential Election, Nasdem and Hanura Party are likely the only supporting political party expected to really give support to Presiden Jokowi, but not spectacularly.
The development of the strategic infrfa structure is important but the increasing number of the foreign debt is not the good image of the present Government because it definitely become the increasing of the national burden.
Foreign trade is still negatively imbalance this is indicating export is low because the domestic industry is not progressing and the job vacant are still low and the jobless are stll high.
The increasing number of stock of fish for export has not yet increased the income of the fishermen.
The expensive price of food in general is indicating the slow progress of agricutural product.
The life of the low level group of the society is harder with the payment capabilty are apparently low. The objective number of poor peole has never been made.
In general the good image is only in the development of heavy infra structure mainly road and transportation but lack of industrial infrastructure building such as the water dam and the electric power.
Definitely without spectacular changing in the daily economic life the image of President’s Jokowi government both politically and economically are considered worse than the previous years under the previous Government. Not much changing likely could be achieved within one year.
Since the popularity does not mean directly to build the electability, the political scenario of single Presidential Candidate in the Presidential Election in 2019 is not likely visible. Tjahyo Kumolo (Minister of Home Affairs) personally predicts there will be likely three Presidential Candidates in the Presidential Election in 2019.
*) Lieutenant General TNI (Ret) Soedibyo, Political and Security Observer in Jakarta.