Political Background and the Objective of SBY- Prabowo Meeting

Political Background and the Objective of SBY- Prabowo Meeting

The information on the meeting between Prabowo and SBY has  apparently become one of attractive news in the end July 2017 in this country. General (Ret) SBY and Lieut. Gen (Ret) Prabowo are considered as  two successful army General in their military career, graduated from their  first military education in the National Military Academy (now The Military Academy) in Magelang, though in different  year,  but definitely they knows each other very  well.

They have  been assigned  in  different military unit so definitely they  have  not been  in the close contact at  anytime. Prabowo quit from TNI after May 1998 incidence and created Gerindra Party, meanwhile SBY was appointed  to be active in  various jobs and also  created  the Democratic Party. He was elected as President of the Republic of Indonesia in two terms in  2004-2009 and 2009-2014 This condition has made them to have been away from each other.

As the politician  they are not in a close political aspiration  though definitely they understand each other. In the Presidential Election of 2014 Democratic Party     (founded  on  September  9,   2001) under the leadership of SBY did not make any support to Prabowo as the Presidential Canidadte.SBY  likely wish to be recorded by the history  of this country as the only army general who had been successfully run two terms as the President of The Republic of Indonesia (2004-2009 and 2009-20014).

In the Regional Election of Jakarta in 2016 Prabowo as the Chairman of Gerindra Party (founded  on February 6, 2008) was supporting Anies-Sandiaga and SBY as the Chairman  of the Democratic Party was supporting his son Agus Harimurti Yudhyono – Silvy.

Definitely they were  in the situation of rivalry and SBY lost the game, because apparently Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono to be defeated in the election. However speculation has been made by various observers  that Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono is prepared for the Presidential election of 2019,  though  people are realizing Agus Harimurti Yudhono  will be too young for the job of President of the Republic of Indonesia a country with 250 million people and its territory as large as the American Continent from San Fransisco to New York.

In the second round of the Regional Election of Jakarta in 2017 SBY also did not give any support to Gerindra Party who led Anies and Sandiaga as the pair of Governor Candidate against Ahok who is supported by the Government Coalition. This retrieving record is just to show SBY has not been close to Prabowo, though  definitely  they  know well  each  other.

Now SBY is willing to receive Prabowo who ask to meet him. People are expecting whatever the objective of the request of Prabowo the readiness of SBY to meet him has been appreciated as the possible moment for those two eminent leaders of two influence political parties  to look for the strategic idea to solve the various existing  national crucial condition. Some observers are  also in the opinion  Prabowo was asking to meet SBY is definitely because SBY as the Chairman of  the Democratic Party also did not support the policy of the Government  in various problems. People tend to believe Prabowo is trying to check the possibility of cooperation with he Democratic Party to be created to face  the Presidential Election of 2019.

In the House of Representative though they are not the member of the Government Coalition but Democratic Party and Gerindra Party are not in the same group of action.

Gerindra Party earlier was the supporter of  the Parliamentary Enquete for KPK and Democratic Party did not support the Parliamentary Enquete for KPK.However now the situation has likely changed. Now both Democratic Party and Gerindra Party do not support the Parliamentary Enquete on KPK. But Prabowo comes to SBY likely is not because of the Parliamentary Enquete for KPK but in relation with the Presidential Election of 2019.

Both Democratic Party and Gerindra Party are against the Law on the General Election and Presidential Election. Both of this political parties were Walking Out in the  Parliamentary Plenum Meeting to approve The Bill on The General and Presidential Election. Prabowo is definitely wishing to know SBY’s strategic thinking to face the Presidential Eletion of 2019. Based on SBY’s  strategic thinking Prabowo will consider the possible cooperation between Gerindra Party and Democratic Party to be established.

Apparently the political objective of Prabowo to meet SBY is an attractive issue and various Political Observers tried to predict what kind of political cooperation will be made to face the General and Presidential  Election in 2019.

One Observer is  of  the  opinion  though the objective of  this meeting is still unclear but the meeting of  SBY and Prabowo  has  clearly materialized  and the possible political cooperation could be expected.  Prabowo  realized  to  establish  the political Coalition to face the Presidential Election of 2019  is still too far but to  cooperate legally  to come to the Constitution Court   could be definitely expected by Prabowo. Prabowo likely is of strong willingness to bring the legal complain on the Law on General Election to the Constitutional Court. Prabowo is expecting SBY will jointly support this legal movement. However apparently people are expecting Prabowo-SBY meeting  will means more widely. Beside the political problem people also  think that this country  is  also facing various strategic problem but without clear strategic policy to solve it.

Totally  there are four eminent strategic issues faced by this country today, those are : Based  on the majority of the political power  and  the governmental authority  The Government as the highest  people sovereignty holder to have decided to publish The Government Regulation No 2 of 20127 to replace Law No 17 of 2003 on the dissolution of anti Pancasila Mass organization.

Based on strong political majority  power in the House of Representative supported by The Government Coalition ( Golkar Party, The PDI-P, NASDEM Party, HANURA Party, PKB and  PPP) The House of Representatives had officially approved by The  Law on The General Election and The Presidential Election in 2019.

Based on this new Law on the Presidential Election it is applied the Presidential Threshold of  20 % of the number of Seats or 25 % of the number of the National votes in the General Election.In the plenum meeting of The House of Representatives to approve those two Bills Gerindra Party, PAN Party, PKS and Democratic Party factions were Walking Out for abstain.

The increasing number of the foreign debt of the  Country of Indonesia, around tree thousand billion  rupiah. People are starting to ask who will be the responsible element of this country to pay this debt and how to pay it.  People start to be more  pessimistic on  this country  being  able to pay her foreign  debt when President Jokowi expressed  his  idea to make use the  Haj/Pilgrimate   budget for  the financing  of the infra structure project. President Jokowi’s idea are clearly rejected by many political figures though President Jokowi idea is legally permitted.

The un-successful effort to eradicate the Corruption that develops dramatically in the country and the existence  of  KPK in relation with the Parliamentary Enquete  on KPK which is not clear objective but people tend to think KPK  to have become the powerful State Institution which can do no  wrong to have not yet been responded by the Government. This  anti corruption issue to have become the crucial political problem in the political scene.

The  un  predicted  meeting   between SBY and Prabowo to have been  held in the Residence of  former President  SBY  in Cikeas, Bogor, West Jawa on Thursday July 27,  2017.This meeting had lasted smoothly, however there  was no likely the release of  the complete  information  to  inform the  public  what is  the theme and the  result of this meeting.

Observers are of the opinion that people are likely expecting too much to the meeting of Prabowo and SBY who suddenly become the national event expected to present the idea how to solve the  various problem of  the country to day. Fahry Hamzah Vice Speaker of  The House  of Representative is not satisfy to the result of the meeting  concluding  the meeting between SBY and Prabowo is apparently to be poor of idea. This meeting has been apparently only discussing the situation they considered as the manipulation of power  by the  Government. Accordingly based on mral value Democrat Party and Gerindra Party will urge the Government to rectify  her political  move. The likely conclusion that made OSO the Chairman  of HANURA to be  angry because  as if the Government Coalition to be considered  as  immoral.

In his comment concerning his meeting with Prabowo  former President SBY  was indicating that  in the meeting  between SBY and Prabowo both of the  two political  leaders to have discussed  the political majority power enjoyed by the Government Coalition.

SBY clearly made strong repeating statement that  Democracy should not go un-checked, the implementation of power should be strongly controlled. The statement of former President SBY reminds us to  the phrases that  says  “Power tends to corrupt and Absolute Power Corrupts absolutely” Likely there was  analysis the Government to have manipulate its majority power to make the  more  bigger power.

SBY likely believed that the exploitation of  majority  power to have been made by the Government to  decide  a number  of  the  crucial State Decision, such as in the case of the dissolution of mass organization that is considered against the Pancasila ideology without the decision  of Court of Justice and the  implementation of  the Presidential Threshold in the Presidential  Election.

In the meantime Prabowo has made his sharp critical comment  on the Presidential Threshold of 20% seats and 25 % of national vote  as a joke. So the meeting between  Prabowo and SBY was to confirm their feeling  that  the Government  to have manipulated the democratic principle  neglecting  the  people’s  check and control.

So far not any political party figures of among the Government Coalition  to respond the statement of SBY and Porabowo, but apparently President Jokowi himself to have been provoked to respond the comment exposed by  SBY and  Prabowo,  President Jokowi directly to be woke up and firmly tried to respond the complained of Prabowo and SBY  on the House of Representative’s approval to the application of the Presidential Threshold  of  20 %  seats and 25% of national vote.

President Jokowi made the counter attack against Prabowo strongly said   the Presidential Threshold had been implemented in the Presidential Election  in 2014 so why now it is strongly rejected and to respond  SBY comment President Jokowi said everything to have been decided democratically by the House of Representative.

It is only the Chairman of PAN who is still the member of the Government Coalition but he does not support the implementation of the Threshold 20 % of seats and 25 % of national vote saying that The General Election and Presidential Election in 2014 and the General Election in 2019 to be different because the General Election and the Presidential Election in 2019 will be done instantly so it is impossible to use the  result of  the General Election as the calculation  to decide the Presidential  Threshold achieved  by  the  respective  political  party. PAN also suggested President Jokowi to accept  wisely the  former President SBY’s  critical comment.

It is clear the Country of Indonesia is in critical situation  waiting for the decision  of the  Constitution Court about the Presidential Threshold of 20% seats and 25 % of national votes  and also the Government Regulation No 2 of 2017 on the dissolution of anti Pancasila  mass Organization.

One suggestion has been raised by Observer that Zulkifly Hasan  should speak not as the Chairman   of PAN Party  but as the Speaker of  The  People’s Consultative Assembly, what we should do to calm down the situation and  solve our national problem proportionally. People tend to think the State System should be re-aranged and for that purpose Constitution applied now should be re-amended in accordance to the origin of the Constitution of 1945.

The meeting between Prabowo and SBY is only to strengthen their will to make the legal complain concerning the Law on  General and Presidential Election which is applying the Presidential Treshold of 20 % Seats  and 25 % of National Votes and definitely  wishing to establish the significant coalition in the Presidential Election in 2019. However likely Fahry Hamzah is true, there are various state problems we have to solve.

*)  Lieutenant General (Ret) Soedibyo, Political and Security Observer

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